Top 5 - drivers not listed prop

rolltide · Apr 25, 2010

anyone ever looked into how successful this bet would be, particularly at a track that could potentially take out 15-20 cars in one wreck?

I see they list 20 drivers at specific odds then give "the field" at evens or above.

seems to me this could be a profitable bet on this type of track where outsiders might be the only men left standing

if i can find a talladega top 5 for last few years will post but in the meantime anyone with thoughts?

rolltide · Apr 25, 2010

decent info here:

Best average finish among active drivers at Talladega (3 or more starts):

Kurt Busch (13.1)
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (14.0)
David Ragan (14.5)
Bill Elliott (14.7)
Tony Stewart (14.7)
Kevin Harvick (16.3)
Mark Martin (16.4)
Jeff Gordon (16.5)
Jimmie Johnson (17.0)
Travis Kvapil (17.2)

Worst average finish among active drivers at Talladega (3 or more starts):

Sam Hornish, Jr. (36.3)
A.J. Allmendinger (32.7)
Martin Truex, Jr. (28.4)
David Reutimann (27.2)
Todd Bodine (26.8)
Paul Menard (26.6)
Derrike Cope (26.3)
Mike Bliss (25.4)
Aric Almirola (25.3)
Dave Blaney (24.9)

Current top-12 drivers at Talladega:
<TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 14px" border=1 width="90%"><TBODY><TR><TH>Driver</TH><TH>Races</TH><TH>Win</TH><TH>T5</TH><TH>T10</TH><TH>Pole</TH><TH>Laps</TH><TH>Led</TH><TH>AvSt</TH><TH>AvFn</TH><TH>Rating</TH></TR><TR><TD>Jimmie Johnson</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2898</TD><TD align=right>192</TD><TD align=right>10.2</TD><TD align=right>17.0</TD><TD align=right>82.7</TD></TR><TR><TD>Matt Kenseth</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3537</TD><TD align=right>145</TD><TD align=right>23.4</TD><TD align=right>18.2</TD><TD align=right>85.7</TD></TR><TR><TD>Greg Biffle</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2395</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>17.4</TD><TD align=right>22.4</TD><TD align=right>68.4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kevin Harvick</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3318</TD><TD align=right>106</TD><TD align=right>23.2</TD><TD align=right>16.3</TD><TD align=right>74.7</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jeff Gordon</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>5754</TD><TD align=right>817</TD><TD align=right>12.1</TD><TD align=right>16.5</TD><TD align=right>87.1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kyle Busch</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1646</TD><TD align=right>89</TD><TD align=right>19.4</TD><TD align=right>24.6</TD><TD align=right>76.4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dale Earnhardt, Jr.</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3424</TD><TD align=right>664</TD><TD align=right>17.6</TD><TD align=right>14.0</TD><TD align=right>92.2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jeff Burton</TD><TD align=right>32</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5384</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>25.4</TD><TD align=right>17.9</TD><TD align=right>85.7</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kurt Busch</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3262</TD><TD align=right>103</TD><TD align=right>22.3</TD><TD align=right>13.1</TD><TD align=right>85.5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mark Martin</TD><TD align=right>44</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>7331</TD><TD align=right>322</TD><TD align=right>14.0</TD><TD align=right>16.4</TD><TD align=right>61.2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Denny Hamlin</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1366</TD><TD align=right>175</TD><TD align=right>16.6</TD><TD align=right>21.2</TD><TD align=right>93.4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Joey Logano</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>379</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>21.0</TD><TD align=right>6.0</TD><TD align=right>90.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tony Stewart</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4037</TD><TD align=right>269</TD><TD align=right>16.8</TD><TD align=right>14.7</TD><TD align=right>89.9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Driver Rating is based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines "loop data" elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, etc. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race. Driver Rating is not available for races prior to 2005. Other notable Driver Ratings at Talladega: David Ragan (91.8), Brian Vickers (89.3), Jamie McMurray (84.5), Juan Pablo Montoya (83.8), Ryan Newman (78.3).

rolltide · Apr 25, 2010

last 5 races at Talladega. you guys will know better than I if it is likely that any of these guys were not lined to be in top 5 but my guess is that 3 or 4 of these 5 races (all 5 depending on keselowski) saw an unlined driver hit the board:

mcmurray, kahne, logano, biffle, burton
keselowski, jr, newman, ambrose, speed
steward, menard, ragan, burton, bowyer
kyle busch, montoya, hamlin, ragan, vickers
gordon, johnson, blaney, hamlin, newman